供应链中的牛鞭效应用英语解释牛鞭效应的一句或一段话.想要解释-查字典问答网

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　　供应链中的牛鞭效应用英语解释牛鞭效应的一句或一段话.想要解释原理的一段话，不是介绍名字的！

　　供应链中的牛鞭效应

　　用英语解释牛鞭效应的一句或一段话.

　　想要解释原理的一段话，不是介绍名字的！

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2020-12-2901:51

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曹艳秋

　　TheBullwhipEffect(orWhiplashEffect)isanobservedphenomenoninforecast-drivendistributionchannels.TheconcepthasitsrootsinJForrester'sIndustrialDynamics(1961)andthusitisalsoknownastheForresterEffect.SincetheoscillatingdemandmagnificationupstreamasupplychainremindssomeoneofacrackingwhipitbecamefamousastheBullwhipEffect.

　　Becausecustomerdemandisrarelyperfectlystable,businessesmustforecastdemandtoproperlypositioninventoryandotherresources.Forecastsarebasedonstatistics,andtheyarerarelyperfectlyaccurate.Becauseforecasterrorsareagiven,companiesoftencarryaninventorybuffercalled"safetystock".Movingupthesupplychainfromend-consumertorawmaterialssupplier,eachsupplychainparticipanthasgreaterobservedvariationindemandandthusgreaterneedforsafetystock.Inperiodsofrisingdemand,down-streamparticipantsincreaseorders.Inperiodsoffallingdemand,ordersfallorstoptoreduceinventory.Theeffectisthatvariationsareamplifiedasonemovesupstreaminthesupplychain(furtherfromthecustomer).ThissequenceofeventsiswellsimulatedbytheBeerDistributionGamewhichwasdevelopedbytheMITSloanSchoolofManagementinthe1960s.

　　Thecausescanfurtherbedividedintobehavioralandoperationalcauses:

　　Behaviouralcauses

　　misuseofbase-stockpolicies

　　misperceptionsoffeedbackandtimedelays

　　panicorderingreactionsafterunmetdemand

　　perceivedriskofotherplayers'boundedrationality

　　Operationalcauses

　　dependentdemandprocessing

　　ForecastErrors

　　adjustmentofinventorycontrolparameterswitheachdemandobservation

　　LeadtimeVariability(forecasterrorduringreplenishmentleadtime)

　　lot-sizing/ordersynchronization